En modell om varför det regnar (the rain model)

(english follows)

Så har den första veckan precis avklarats. Professor Dale Duhan från Texas Tech University har undervisat i “Core theories in management”. Det har varit en mycket intensiv vecka. Vi har haft lektioner från 9-15 som sedan följts av mycket sena kvällar. Det har varit roligt. Min första teori som jag byggde upp handlade om någonting utanför ”business”, och jag valde helt enkelt teorin om varför det regnar (en förenklad modell så klart). Varför: jo, det regnar nästan hela tiden…

Efter regnteorin har vi så fortsatt med de intresseområden vi har. Det jag tittar på är i ett stort perspektiv vem som tjänar pengar på mikrofinans och sociala investeringar. Lite mer specifikt försöker jag bygga en modell kring hur man som investerare i sociala investeringar, t.ex. mikrofinans, kan vara säker på att ens förväntningar och målsättningar också möts av alla mellanhänder, fram till den ”goda” gärningen.

Under mina år som förvaltare och rådgivare, i bl.a. London , Schweiz och Norden, och nu senast som ekonomichef i Svenska Missionskyrkan och VD i Derbo Förvaltning AB har jag stött på en lång rad med ”goda” investeringar som jag upplevt som högst tveksamma investeringar, men som marknadsförs dagligen till institutioner och privatpersoner.

Ibland är marknadsföringen vinklad, där riskerna inte lyfts fram eller görs förståeliga, och man får förhoppningar om att man både gör nytta och får avkastning. Kanske är risken större än man tror, vilket troligen inte kommuniceras eftersom säljaren (mäklaren ibland eller den ”gode vännen”) inte heller förstått riskerna.  Någonstans i hela kedjan av händelser, kan det alltid finnas individer som tar beslut som kanske inte gynnar investeraren, utan personen själv. Hur kan sådant motverkas?

De sociala investeringarna omfattas inte alltid av samma regelverk som professionella fonder, vilket jag aldrig riktigt förstått. Inte sällan visar det sig att man inte får den finansiella avkastning som man räknat med, och kanske att till och med hela investeringen försvunnit upp i rök.

Så om man investerar i den här typen av sociala investeringar, vad krävs det för struktur och incitamentssystem i bolagen för att dina förväntningar ska mötas? Det är kring detta jag vill forska kring. Teorin som jag lutar mig på initialt kallas ”Principal Agent Theory”. Låter det intressant?


The first week just passed. We have had Dr. Dale Duhan from Texas Tech University as a teacher in the course “Core theories in management” and it has been a very intense week. It’s been fun. I started out with a theory of rain. Why, because it rains a lot here … (see graph above)

Afterwards, we continued with our areas of interest. I am basically looking at who profits on microfinance and social investment. Specifically, I aim to build a model of how investors in social investments, such as Microfinance can be sure that their expectations are met by all intermediaries.

During my years as a portfolio manager and advisor, in London, Switzerland and Scandinavia, and most recently as CFO of the Swedish Mission Covenant Church and as CEO of Derbo AB, I have encountered a wide range of “good” investments that I experienced as rather dubious investments but marketed daily to institutions and individuals.

Often the risks involved are not understood, by any part. Sometimes it may be that you receive no financial return, or even worse that the entire investment is gone.

When investing in social investment funds or initiatives, what is required in terms of a corporate governance structure and what incentive and control system exist? This is what I am researching. Relying initially on a theory known as “Principal-Agency” theory. Sounds interesting?

“Gå på tur” and German occupation

“Gå på tur” or go for a walk lie close to heart for many Norwegians. Today was my first hike up in the area behind where I live in Kristiansand. My research supervisor, Professor Trond Randøy, and I went for a hike, partly to discuss research but also just to enjoy the beautiful scenery and some fresh air. There is a very beautiful area just behind, with high hills and a lake great for swimming in the summer time.





While the area is beautiful, there is still a lot of memories from the German invasion.


In 1940, 9th of April, the Germans came to Norway, and I must admit that my knowledge of how that happened is rather limited. So I had to freshen up my memory a bit. To the Norwegians the invasion came a bit as a surprise as they were not prepared. During a short moment they even thought it was the French. Given the size of the fleet coming over they should have been able to resist the attack, to gain support from Britain. The surprise move was the reason Norway fell. It seems that the key reason Germany wanted to take Norway, was 1) afraid Britain would occupy Norway, and 2) taking Scandinavia would stop cellulose imports, timber imports, butter imports and 10% of iron ore imports to Britain. Denmark fell first, then Norway. Although Sweden was not occupied by Germany, Germany still seamed to have controlled Sweden indirectly, such as the coal industry (but I am not an expert on this topic). Next after Scandinavia was thus Britain. Today this is hard to comprehend.

It is also one thing reading about the occupation, it is another to actually see it and experience it. In Sweden my grandparents experienced the war to some degree, but they did not experience the invasion, but the grandparents of people in Norway lived through the war, and saw and felt the invasion. There are still people here who were 15-20 years old when it happened. At one time, it is claimed that Norway was invaded by up to 400.000 German soldiers, which must have been about 15-20% of the population. Just imagine.

To Norway, and Kristiansand, came many prisoners of war from for instance Russia. They were used as slaves, and were not treated well. Just before the war ended, but knowing of the German capitulation, 5 prisoners of war from Russia were killed in the woods just behind were I live in Kristiansand. It was a very surreal feel to stand at this place, today, some 67 years later. The place must look identical to how it looked back then. Just horrible.



It says “Here 5 Russian war prisoners were killed” on 28th of april and 5th of may 1945.


On the 20th of May Norway was freed from the German occupation, a day which is still celebrated in Norway.

I did some searches on YouTube, and came up with this:

Article in Svenska Dagladet (Swedish)


Robert Gustavsson (Swedish comedian)


Propaganda film from Germany


US Government film (short mention – I did not easily find more films)





First day in school


Today was our first day at University of Agder. Professor Roy Mersland took us through the introduction part. We need to be OUTPUT focused. Expecations are that we should be able to submit our thesis within three (3) years, although it may take longer, but we only have financing for three years. The three years conform to new EU-standards. Norway lives up to the requirements of the EU and has applied for membership three times, but public opinion in Norway has not yet viewed a membership as beneficial (same thing with Switzerland).

We are not just writing a PhD, we are making a new career. It is up to us to find funding after three years.

Overall, the first day provided a good introduction to what is expected of us. We learn that there are rules, which we need to follow and which clearly set the expectations of us. It is challenging, but not overwhelming.

We were challenged to explain our research ideas, using the “mother in law” test, which means we had 4 minutes to write down our ideas, and one minute to present it, in a way which anyone could understand.

My current research question idea: Who profits from Microfinace?

Microfinance creates jobs and helps people out of poverty, supposedly, but is not a magic cure to poverty alleviation. Mining for minerals also creates jobs, but where do the profits go? In other words, what happens between the investor and the end user of the capital? Are the investment funds, the intermediaries, reaping a lot of the benefits? Are they efficient? What about the investor? Is he or she getting a return which is fairly reflecting the risk of the investment? Debt financing is a pretty secure form of financing businesses and entrepreneurs, so why is not equity financing part of Micro Finance to such a high degree? Is the capital structure of the MFIs (the local Microbanks) optimal? What effects to international debt have on the MFIs? Etc. Many questions, and not yet a narrow focus… How do one answer a question like this?